Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
